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2026-06-11 · FinMind + Fubon 真實行情對照 ← 主頁

監控總覽 · Live Snapshot

2026-06-11

整體命中率 ALL

58.5%

134/229 對 · A+B+C 合計樣本

真 Alpha 源 MAIN

67.2%

tier_main · 5d · N=61 · 平均 +6.27%

手動推薦平均 C

+1.77%

N=2 · 勝率 100% · 5d 優先

最弱信號 RISK

12.5%

中性判讀 · N=8 · 接近隨機

🟡

中性日勝率極低

12%（N=8）— 震盪日定義模糊

🟢

美股噴 → 看多單日

勝率 86% (N=7)

🟢

美股殺 → 看空單日

勝率 100% (N=4)

🟢

tier_main 真 alpha

勝率 67% / 平均 +6.27%

A. 大盤方向判讀

us_tw_alert → TAIEX 對照

樣本天數

含看多/空/中性

整體勝率

57.9%

11/19 對

看多勝率

85.7%

N=7

看空勝率

100.0%

N=4

中性勝率

12.5%

N=8（最弱）

規則：美股核心（SOX/TSM/AVGO/NVDA）平均 1d >+1% 看多 / <-1% 看空 / 中間中性；TAIEX 漲跌 >±0.3% 算對。中性勝率低是預期（震盪日定義模糊），有方向判讀的勝率才有 alpha。

日期	US核心	判讀	TAIEX	對?	cluster
2026-06-10	-0.75	中性	-3.31%	✗	0/0
2026-06-09	+3.24	看多	+2.76%	✓	12/23
2026-06-08	-7.77	看空	-3.48%	✓	0/0
2026-06-05	-2.76	看空	-1.33%	✓	0/2
2026-06-04	-1.24	看空	-1.68%	✓	0/0
2026-06-03	+3.11	看多	+1.98%	✓	7/24
2026-06-02	+3.59	看多	+0.48%	✓	0/18
2026-06-01	+0.44	中性	+1.35%	✗	1/6
2026-05-29	+0.85	中性	+2.51%	✗	0/0
2026-05-28	+0.02	中性	-1.40%	✗	3/6
2026-05-27	+2.29	看多	+1.68%	✓	0/6
2026-05-26	-0.17	中性	-0.27%	✓	0/0
2026-05-25	-0.17	中性	+3.26%	✗	0/0
2026-05-22	+0.03	中性	+2.18%	✗	0/0
2026-05-21	+2.43	看多	+3.37%	✓	5/11
2026-05-20	-0.97	中性	-0.39%	✗	0/0
2026-05-15	+3.71	看多	-1.39%	✗	0/18
2026-05-14	+1.22	看多	+0.91%	✓	6/17
2026-05-13	-1.58	看空	-1.25%	✓	0/0

B. 個股 picks 回測

v02 + v04 · T+1 open 進 · T+5 close 出

總樣本

208

5d 完成

整體 5d 勝率

58.2%

121/208 賺

整體 5d 平均

+3.91%

含 edge_top20

tier_main 勝率

67.2%

N=61 · 真 alpha 源

tier_main 平均

+6.27%

vs base ~0%

只列 tier_main + tier_satellite。edge_top20 勝率 52.5%、+2.65% 接近隨機，回測證實該砍。完整 220 筆 → /tmp/picks_backtest.json

決策日	代號	名稱	tier	T+1 open	1d	5d	5d MDD
2026-06-01	3229	晟鈦	main	50.00	+0.60%	-17.80%	-20.10%
2026-06-01	2637	慧洋-KY	main	78.70	-2.16%	-0.25%	-3.94%
2026-06-01	5522	遠雄	main	74.10	+1.35%	+0.13%	-2.16%
2026-06-01	2243	宏旭-KY	sat	29.35	-4.60%	-5.45%	-13.97%
2026-06-01	6155	鈞寶	sat	69.00	+10.00%	+12.03%	-6.52%
2026-06-01	6214	精誠	sat	158.00	+0.00%	-11.08%	-17.09%
2026-06-01	6282	康舒	sat	65.50	-3.82%	-10.23%	-12.21%
2026-05-29	1303	南亞	main	98.70	+8.92%	+5.88%	-1.22%
2026-05-29	2243	宏旭-KY	main	27.30	+9.71%	+2.75%	-3.48%
2026-05-29	2330	台積電	main	2355.00	+0.00%	+0.42%	-0.21%
2026-05-29	2472	立隆電	main	383.00	+2.35%	-5.09%	-17.75%
2026-05-29	2885	元大金	main	59.30	-0.17%	+10.12%	-1.69%
2026-05-29	2369	菱生	sat	40.90	-2.93%	-14.67%	-18.58%
2026-05-28	6531	愛普*	main	1160.00	+2.59%	-9.05%	-9.91%
2026-05-28	2449	京元電子	main	329.00	-0.15%	-2.13%	-9.42%
2026-05-28	2637	慧洋-KY	main	78.40	-3.95%	-0.38%	-4.08%
2026-05-28	1514	亞力	main	128.50	-2.33%	+16.34%	-5.84%
2026-05-28	5285	界霖	main	92.50	-2.59%	+7.35%	-7.89%
2026-05-28	2497	怡利電	sat	61.90	-3.55%	-0.32%	-4.20%
2026-05-28	6438	迅得	sat	176.50	-0.85%	-8.50%	-9.35%
2026-05-28	3704	合勤控	sat	46.85	-1.07%	+1.81%	-2.67%
2026-05-28	2353	宏碁	sat	33.80	+4.14%	+15.68%	-0.74%
2026-05-27	2344	華邦電	main	151.00	-4.64%	+17.55%	-5.96%
2026-05-27	3588	通嘉	main	65.20	-5.37%	-4.29%	-6.13%
2026-05-27	1303	南亞	main	96.00	-5.73%	+17.71%	-6.46%
2026-05-27	1717	長興	main	85.60	-3.74%	-8.76%	-10.28%
2026-05-27	2637	慧洋-KY	main	76.40	+0.39%	+0.79%	-1.57%
2026-05-27	1514	亞力	main	127.50	-1.57%	+6.67%	-5.10%
2026-05-27	2032	新鋼	main	18.15	-1.93%	+2.75%	-3.03%
2026-05-27	2606	裕民	main	72.00	-1.53%	-1.25%	-4.86%
2026-05-27	2449	京元電子	main	315.50	+1.43%	+2.22%	-5.55%
2026-05-27	6213	聯茂	main	285.00	-8.42%	-5.26%	-9.47%
2026-05-27	1773	勝一	sat	197.00	-6.60%	-8.63%	-10.91%
2026-05-27	3704	合勤控	sat	45.25	+0.22%	+8.40%	-0.33%
2026-05-27	1503	士電	sat	221.50	-2.48%	+10.16%	-3.39%
2026-05-27	1409	新纖	sat	19.35	+7.24%	+56.59%	-0.78%
2026-05-27	2302	麗正	sat	32.05	+11.39%	+10.76%	-0.78%
2026-05-27	2353	宏碁	sat	31.80	+0.63%	+36.48%	+0.00%
2026-05-27	4720	德淵	sat	26.40	-2.46%	+2.27%	-6.06%
2026-05-27	5285	界霖	sat	88.00	+2.39%	+2.95%	-3.18%
2026-05-27	6282	康舒	sat	59.80	-3.51%	+7.69%	-5.02%
2026-05-27	6691	洋基工程	sat	674.00	-5.34%	-4.30%	-5.79%
2026-05-27	6770	力積電	sat	75.60	+6.75%	+11.90%	-2.78%
2026-05-26	2404	漢唐	main	1285.00	-3.89%	-10.51%	-11.67%
2026-05-26	1409	新纖	main	18.20	+3.85%	+51.37%	+0.00%
2026-05-26	1514	亞力	main	126.00	-0.79%	-1.59%	-3.97%
2026-05-26	2606	裕民	main	70.20	+3.28%	+2.56%	-2.71%
2026-05-26	2428	興勤	main	260.00	+2.31%	+6.35%	-1.73%
2026-05-26	2449	京元電子	sat	344.50	-8.42%	-11.03%	-13.50%
2026-05-26	4949	有成精密	sat	108.00	-5.56%	-3.24%	-12.96%
2026-05-26	6196	帆宣	sat	523.00	-4.40%	-1.15%	-6.12%
2026-05-26	3189	景碩	sat	726.00	-3.31%	+2.34%	-9.92%
2026-05-26	3704	合勤控	sat	45.65	-0.88%	+5.15%	-2.08%
2026-05-26	2302	麗正	sat	36.00	-9.17%	+2.78%	-11.67%
2026-05-26	3312	弘憶股	sat	53.00	-5.85%	+14.34%	-8.77%
2026-05-25	2344	華邦電	main	133.50	+5.62%	+25.84%	-0.37%
2026-05-25	4916	事欣科	main	100.00	+0.50%	+19.00%	-5.00%
2026-05-25	3003	健和興	main	61.60	+1.79%	+0.81%	-3.90%
2026-05-25	1409	新纖	main	17.65	+0.00%	+41.93%	-1.42%
2026-05-25	2302	麗正	main	30.95	+9.69%	+23.59%	-0.65%
2026-05-25	2032	新鋼	sat	19.00	-6.58%	-4.21%	-7.37%
2026-05-25	2369	菱生	sat	37.10	+1.62%	+7.01%	-1.21%
2026-05-25	4912	聯德控股-KY	sat	111.00	-4.05%	+2.25%	-6.76%
2026-05-25	5434	崇越	sat	485.00	-0.82%	-6.60%	-7.94%
2026-05-25	3704	合勤控	sat	43.90	+3.08%	+6.61%	-1.59%
2026-05-25	2436	偉詮電	sat	81.50	-2.33%	-6.87%	-7.36%
2026-05-25	3048	益登	sat	73.00	+0.00%	-6.30%	-7.53%
2026-05-25	3312	弘憶股	sat	51.10	+3.33%	+7.83%	-5.38%
2026-05-25	5484	慧友	sat	52.90	-3.02%	+1.32%	-12.10%
2026-05-22	4916	事欣科	main	100.00	+1.50%	+12.50%	-5.00%
2026-05-22	2483	百容	main	26.40	-3.98%	-2.65%	-5.30%
2026-05-22	1773	勝一	main	189.00	+0.00%	-1.32%	-3.70%
2026-05-22	2369	菱生	main	33.00	+3.94%	+22.12%	-3.94%
2026-05-22	2302	麗正	main	28.35	+8.99%	+32.28%	-0.53%
2026-05-22	6282	康舒	sat	60.20	+4.82%	-0.50%	-5.65%
2026-05-22	3048	益登	sat	79.10	-7.33%	-8.98%	-12.14%
2026-05-22	4956	光鋐	sat	49.20	+2.44%	-7.72%	-9.25%
2026-05-21	4916	事欣科	main	100.00	-1.70%	+2.50%	-5.00%
2026-05-21	2302	麗正	main	26.50	+6.04%	+34.72%	-0.57%
2026-05-21	2489	瑞軒	main	50.70	+1.38%	-5.33%	-6.90%
2026-05-21	5471	松翰	main	52.70	+2.47%	+5.50%	-2.28%
2026-05-21	3704	合勤控	sat	41.45	+6.15%	+9.41%	-4.22%
2026-05-20	2489	瑞軒	main	44.30	+5.64%	+14.45%	-2.48%
2026-05-20	6155	鈞寶	main	56.50	+5.13%	+3.89%	-1.95%
2026-05-20	2027	大成鋼	main	41.35	+2.42%	+2.66%	-1.21%
2026-05-20	3090	日電貿	main	186.00	+5.38%	+24.19%	-1.88%
2026-05-20	5471	松翰	main	52.70	-0.38%	+5.88%	-2.28%
2026-05-20	6139	亞翔	sat	732.00	+7.10%	+10.79%	-0.55%
2026-05-20	6834	天二科技	sat	66.60	+0.00%	+16.67%	+0.00%
2026-05-20	2401	凌陽	sat	27.30	+8.24%	+13.74%	-2.01%
2026-05-20	3094	聯傑	sat	37.40	-3.88%	-4.95%	-7.75%
2026-05-14	2337	旺宏	main	168.00	-3.27%	-16.07%	-18.75%
2026-05-14	6166	凌華	main	111.50	+0.45%	+6.28%	-4.93%
2026-05-14	4551	智伸科	main	158.00	-4.43%	+0.32%	-8.86%
2026-05-14	2485	兆赫	main	70.80	-3.53%	-1.13%	-6.36%
2026-05-14	3406	玉晶光	main	560.00	+5.00%	+3.04%	-3.04%
2026-05-14	6192	巨路	main	134.50	-5.95%	-2.60%	-8.92%
2026-05-14	2027	大成鋼	main	40.05	-0.50%	+5.74%	-2.00%
2026-05-14	3356	奇偶	main	62.70	-2.87%	-2.23%	-4.63%
2026-05-14	5285	界霖	main	73.10	+1.50%	+12.18%	-2.19%
2026-05-14	2356	英業達	sat	54.40	-4.04%	-0.55%	-7.90%
2026-05-14	6196	帆宣	sat	415.50	-2.89%	+3.37%	-5.54%
2026-05-14	6206	飛捷	sat	136.50	-4.76%	+0.37%	-7.69%
2026-05-14	3033	威健	sat	45.95	+4.24%	+14.25%	-1.96%
2026-05-13	6166	凌華	main	111.50	+0.00%	+3.59%	-7.17%
2026-05-12	3006	晶豪科	main	217.50	-0.46%	+8.51%	-2.76%
2026-05-12	2467	志聖	main	635.00	-1.42%	-9.29%	-11.65%
2026-05-12	3209	全科	main	62.90	-0.32%	+21.14%	-5.25%
2026-05-12	6166	凌華	main	107.50	+3.72%	+5.58%	-4.65%

C. 手動推薦

log_recommendation.py · 結構化記錄

已記錄筆數

2026-06-11 起強制 log

有報酬樣本

已到 5d/至今

勝率

100.0%

2/2 賺

平均報酬

+1.77%

5d 優先、無則用至今

從 2026-06-11 起每次 BUY/SELL/WATCH 強制 ~/tools/daily-review/log_recommendation.py。過去 jsonl 撈散文路線已扔（命中 12.5%、有反向誤判）→ /tmp/hope_jsonl_extraction_queue.DROPPED.jsonl

決策日	代號	名稱	動作	建議買價	停損	停利	信心	狀態	5d	至今	理由
2026-05-29	6509	聚和	BUY	50.6	—	—	7/10	到期平倉	+1.19%	-4.25%	[jsonl_extract_verified] 5/29 Hope 主動建議買，Fox 截圖驗證已持有 2 張 @ 50.6
2026-05-29	1216	統一	BUY	72.1	—	—	6/10	到期平倉	+2.36%	+3.19%	[jsonl_extract_corrected] 5/29 Q1 EPS 1.15 YoY +26.9% 防禦型核心。原 jsonl 撈寫成 1750 已修正為 1216；ent
2026-06-11	1904	正隆	WATCH	22.9	21.5	25.0	5/10	盤未開	—	—	回測打臉撤回實單，改 WATCH。TAIEX 跌破 MA20 不該追多。